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Why you should learn poker and game theory (LONG READ)

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!
Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:

- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…

- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:

- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!

TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.
submitted by RaBaTaJ_ to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

GME Devil's Advocate (Part 2)... Stop taking stupid risks

A day or so ago, I wrote this, and of course, I was downvoted to hell. It was both expected and entertaining.
In the comments, I got all sorts of shit talking about how my math was off and
potential returns of 30x? the potential return on a short is 100%. And thats not even including the interest.
It just showed that 1) the GME "investor" has absolutely no regard for information and 2) the little that is given is undigestable.
In the post, I also wrote this:
This is becoming as much an opportunity of a lifetime on the short side, as it was on the long side when the stock was in single digits.
And as expected, I was asked to "short it then". To which I replied honestly, that I will look into possible plays of shorting GME. I then spent almost the entire weekend trying to analyze GME options as of Jan 29 close, and the conclusion was simple... There is no winning in GME options with a WORTHY risk.
I'll explain what that means, but for the near 5million people who just joined the subreddit yesterday, I'm going to take a wild guess and say you're only here for "tendies" because you saw a billboard sponsored by an actual autist who has been lurking the subreddit for years. Or at best, you finally saw a news segment that captured your attention and you thought "oh, I can make money".
Well, welcome aboard! You belong here and I mean that sincerely.
So, first thing first, I didn't short. It makes no fucking sense to short given the risk/reward ratio. Hedge Funds and billion-dollar institutions are shorting NAKED for mega returns because they can afford that... and even then some of them are going BK. Yeah, that's right, they're shorting with their pants off and their dicks in their hands. That's why they felt so exposed when the stock decided to propel itself through the fucking stratosphere and nearly reached escape velocity. But the more important thing to note is that it didn't actually reach escape velocity, a crucial thing for a mission to the moon.
Today, go look at the GME options... here's a link.
Despite a 30% fall, every PUT option across the board is down by mid-double digits. The picture is equally shitty for a vast majority of CALLS, even some ITM calls... and rightly so, CALLS shouldn't be going up if the price is going down (given all other variables remain unchanged).
But that is not how the world works and variables don't remain unchanged. IV, a crucial aspect of options will crush whatever you buy, CALL or PUT, unless the stock sees truly retarded movements... and I mean 60-75% or more.
Despite that, I'm seeing people buy Feb 05 $800 CALL for $500 a contract. Some even paid about $3k a contract at the height of the day.
Now, while this seems like a good idea because if the stock reaches $800, you will indeed be the perfect person to go to the moon. On top of that, your 90 tonnes balls of steel filled with autistic sperm will be enough to fill moon craters with your savant jizz and in a matter of 9 strokes, you'd have made that shitty rock full of life.
So, why am I writing this. The goal of the last post wasn't to scare you... It was to let you know that there are other, unseen forces trying to take your fucking lunch money. Instead of listening and managing your risk, you went ahead and gave them the whole thing and then bent over.
The goal of this post is to try and get some of you savants to stop taking the risk that isn't worthwhile. Many of you aren't even sitting at a casino anymore, you're actually sitting at a bonfire and using your wallet for fuel... it's great if you're a billionaire, and if so, continue fueling it.
But, learn to manage risk. Even the man, the myth, the legend (DFV) didn't just wake up one day and decided to buy a 300% deep OTM money calls expiring in 4 days. He did a 1000x on his investment after detailed analysis, months of research and then followed it with brilliant risk management by longing shares and calls. For those who know, check out his YouTube and then read the timestamps on the uploaded videos. Some of them go back 6 months.
And I get it, GME is a risky stock and has returns to justify it as an "investment". But that is why the words manage and unnecessary are used. Some risks are worthwhile... some are not.
TLDR: Stop taking unnecessary risks by buying deep OTM calls that expire in 4 days.
submitted by wellthenthiswashard to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Who killed notorious 1940s gangster Benjamin ‘Bugsy’ Siegel, the father of modern Las Vegas? Was it another mob boss? The lover of his best friend's wife? One of the men he was embezzling money from? His Mafia spy girlfriend? His own bosses? The possibilities are endless—and puzzling.

(Note: be warned, kind of long background info here, but I think it’s needed)
As far as interesting lives, few can beat Benjamin ‘Bugsy’ Siegel. Born February 28, 1906 in Brooklyn, New York, Siegel came from a poor Jewish family. Before he was even twenty, he’d established a profitable protection racket and a lengthy rap sheet, including armed robbery, rape, and murder. Siegel had connections—he was childhood friends with Al Capone and familiar with many of the well known New York City mobsters of the day—and he also had a taste for violence. Soon, he’d established a small mob specializing in hits for the numerous bootleg gangs of the time with Meyer Lansky, a fellow mobster. His violence and short temper led some to say he was “crazy as a bedbug,” giving him his famous nickname ‘Bugsy,’ which he even more famously despised.
Siegel was making money, which he was happy to flaunt, but he wanted more. He carried out several hits for Charles “Lucky” Luciano, and eventually formed Murder Inc. with his associates, establishing himself as a skilled hitman for the National Crime Syndicate, an organization of mob families. But Siegel was already making enemies, and several assassination attempts were made on his life, some of which came very close to being successful. So, it was time to move out west.
In California, Siegel helped establish gambling rackets, drug trade routes, and prostitution rings. His star was rising outside of the Underworld too, and in addition to the numerous politicians and police on his payroll, he befriended stars like Cary Grant and Clark Gable. Incredibly, while in Italy with a socialite in 1938, he met Hermann Goering and Joseph Goebbels, whom he immediately disliked and offered to kill. The offer was declined by his lady friend. Yet Siegel was not always looked upon fondly by the upper echelons of Hollywood; he borrowed exorbitantly from celebrities, knowing he would never be asked to pay it back, and began to develop extensive plans to extort movie studios. After several trials and acquittals for failed and successful hits, it was time to leave California.
Siegel’s next stop was Las Vegas where, in 1945, he purchased and developed the Flamingo Hotel & Casino, the first luxury hotel on the Vegas strip. As you might imagine, that was expensive, and over the course of its construction, costs were equivalent to over $61 million in today’s money each year. Siegel’s checks were bouncing, and many of the locals felt threatened by him. Mob bosses were beginning to lose patience with Siegel too, and he was refusing to report on business, claiming he was running the California Syndicate himself. For now, they left him alone—he'd been valuable in the past, after all.
The Flamingo Hotel was a dismal failure, and people—very powerful people—were starting to get tired of waiting for the promised money to materialize. By 1947, it was gradually turning around—with the help of Meyer Lansky, now in Vegas—but for most, it was too little too late.
Death:
On June 20, 1947, Siegel was gunned down in the Beverly Hills home of his sometimes-girlfriend Virginia Hill. He was 41. Somewhat suspiciously, Hill had taken an unscheduled flight to Paris the day (or by some sources, week) before. As Siegel sat reading the newspaper with associate Allen Smiley, an unknown assailant fired with a .30 caliber military M1 carbine through the window, striking Siegel many times (NSFW). Two shots hit his head, with one passing through his right cheek and the other his nose. Though he was not hit directly through the eye (NSFW), a bullet-in-the-eye death became a popular trope in Mafia media, including in the Godfather, where a character based on Siegel is murdered in the same manner.
The death was covered extensively in the media, which portrayed Vegas as a bastion of sin and mafia activity. As early as the day after Siegel’s death (or, as some sources have it, during Siegel’s death), however, more personal things were changing: Lansky walked into the Flamingo and took over operations.
Theories:
The mob is famously tight-lipped, and Siegel’s death was no exception. Despite the extensive speculation, no precise motive has ever been confirmed. There was a massive police investigation, but in a case like this, that doesn’t mean much, nor does the media coverage. The media in particular salivated over the potential for splashy crime stories, and the circumstances of this case have been complicated by contemporary coverage. Several days after Siegel’s death, for example, one newspaper ran the headline “BUGSY'S BLONDE EX-WIFE GIVES CLUES TO HIS KILLERS,” while another read “BUGSY'S EX NO AID IN HUNT.” As far as the most popular theories:
A Mob hit: A mob hit seems like the most obvious cause, and it's a theory that’s been popularized by several novels and the 1991 movie Bugsy. It would certainly make sense; it was the mob’s money Siegel had been spending wildly on his unsuccessful hotel after all, and he’d been growing uncooperative. Of the proposed hitmen, the most often mentioned are Frankie Carbo (Ralph Natale, former Philadelphia boss and Mob squealer, claimed Carbo as the true killer) and Eddie Cannizarro, both Syndicate hitmen. But even here, there are several proposed reasons for the hit. As some have it, mob money from the Flamingo’s funding was going missing and Siegel was skimming off the already meager profits. Skimming could have been forgiven, if the Flamingo was a success. It was not. After a meeting of the Syndicate’s “Board of Directors,” it was allegedly decided that Siegel would die, with Lansky reluctantly agreeing. Others believe that a hit might have been ordered whether Siegel was skimming or not; the Flamingo was simply too expensive. As one historian put it, “Bugsy was a dreamer. And he was dreaming with other people’s money.”
Yet many have also argued against this theory. According to one of Siegel’s emissaries in Vegas, for example, no one would have dared to order a hit on Siegel. He and Lansky were close until the end of their lives, and Lansky would never have agreed to it. And if Lansky would not agree, then Charles “Lucky” Luciano, who was “the head of everything,” would never have agreed either. And as others have argued, the method of execution (NSFW) didn’t match with typical mob methods; firing a weapon from outside a house increased the risk of missing as well as the risk of being seen. The preferred method was a clean shot to the back of the head. According to some, the oft-referenced money problems of the Flamingo also wasn’t an issue. At the time, Lansky was paying back any investor who wanted out, and the gradual uptick in its profits was quickening by the day. Personally, I don’t think the financial uptick invalidates the theory. If the hotel was starting to make more money, then that might be all the more reason to get rid of the difficult-to-manage Siegel and take over.
Wire Business: At the time of his death, Siegel was embroiled in a dispute with Jack Dragna, dubbed the Capone of Los Angeles. Siegel and Dragna had had an uneasy partnership in previous years, but Dragna, far less powerful than Siegel and the New York gangs, resented the income and respect Siegel commanded. This came to a head when a racing wire service (a way of cheating on bets) between the two of them soured. Siegel wanted control for himself, and ordered Dragna to turn it over or be killed, to which Dragna agreed. After Siegel’s death, control was returned to Dragna. He had a motive, but his story would only have been one among many for a man as ruthless as Siegel, which, in a way, complicates things further—there’s a real possibility that the culprit in Siegel’s murder was someone never even considered. His list of enemies was long, varied, and probably mostly unknown. Yet another man who had reason to want Siegel dead, for example, was his bodyguard and muscle Mickey Cohen. A Cleveland gangster, Cohen was given control of the Syndicate’s West Coast gambling operations. If Siegel still lived, he would never have gotten it. Interestingly, he, like Al Capone before him, was eventually felled by tax evasion.
Virginia and/or brother: The same emissary of Siegel who shot down the mob hit theory believed that Virginia Hill’s brother had carried out the murder. The brother, a marine stationed at Camp Pendleton named Bob or Bill, had seen Siegel and Virginia fighting outside the Flamingo as well as the bruises Siegel had left on her and threatened to kill him. Another of Virginia’s brothers, Chuck, was also at the Beverly Hills house when Siegel was murdered.
Virginia herself has also been the subject of suspicion. Nicknamed the “Queen of the Mob,” Hill worked, among other powerful jobs, as a cash courier, laundering money and stolen goods as well as blackmailing high-ranking men through sexual liaisons. Her relationship with Siegel was tempestuous at best, and she may have been embezzling from the Flamingo. She’s also been accused of two-timing with rival mob operations, though this is unconfirmed. Eventually fleeing to Europe permanently, Hill died of an overdose in 1966, though some have alleged that she was actually murdered after she, completely broke, attempted to leverage her intimate knowledge of the Mob.
Rival Mobs: Unfortunately, I can’t find much concrete information about this theory (note: story of my life researching these posts haha), but some believe that rival mob operatives wanted Siegel gone. He was a powerful—and very public—figure, which made him something of an obvious target in the cut-throat world of Mafia politics.
Moe Sedway: This is a relatively new theory, emerging after Robbie Sedway was interviewed for LA Magazine after his mother’s death. Here, he alleged that Siegel’s murder was ordered by his mother Bee, the wife of powerful mobster—and childhood friend of Siegel’s—Moe Sedway. According to Bee, who wrote and scrapped a book proposal called Bugsy's Little Lunatic (Siegel’s nickname for her), Siegel had threatened her husband, who was the Flamingo’s numbers man, and therefore watching Siegel—who, remember, had been accused of skimming—closely. So Bee contacted Mathew “Moose” Pandza, a truck driver whom Bee married after Moe’s death. Moose, the perfect killer, since he had no connection to the Mob, then shot Siegel to death. The problem with this theory, however, is that Bee is the only source; as she herself said, anyone who could contradict her was dead. She also squandered most of the fortune left to her by Moe over the course of her life, and died almost penniless.
All of the above: Some believe that almost all the suspects were involved. Usually, it goes something like this: “Virginia supplied the location and received some reward. Cohen knew Bugsy's schedule for the evening, but happened to not be watching him that night…Dragna ordered the hit, with the approval of Lansky and Luciano.” It’s unlikely, but it certainly has its believers, if only for the convenience of it.
Final Thoughts & Questions:
This case is interesting to me because of the sheer number of suspects. In the end, a mob hit seems the simplest and most likely explanation. But there were so many people with means, motive, and opportunity. So:
Sources:
https://www.lamag.com/longform/mobster-murder-moll-secret/
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/lasvegas-bugsy/
https://themobmuseum.org/blog/killed-benjamin-bugsy-siegel/
https://unsolvedmysteries.fandom.com/wiki/Bugsy_Siegel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bugsy_Siegel
https://themobmuseum.org/blog/virginia-hill-queen-of-the-mob-was-no-ones-pushove
To many, Siegel’s legacy exceeds his mob connections, and in some ways, even his death; without him, many believe, there would be no Vegas. So if you take anything away from this write-up, let it be this: The Blue Man group’s Vegas residency is Bugsy Siegel’s fault.
submitted by LiviasFigs to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

[TRADING PSYCHOLOGY] Nobody ever takes a trade thinking it's going to be a loser

I spent several hours this past week coaching traders at my prop firm. And something caught my attention…
Every single one of these traders needed help with the same thing.
It has to do with what I call the “reverse” gambler’s fallacy. And it’s something many traders struggle with.
Today, I’ll show you how to get this common obstacle under control… and start earning more consistent returns year after year…
What Most New Traders Get Wrong
The obstacle I’m talking about is trading psychology. It’s a very broad term used to describe the emotional side of trading.
Almost all new traders believe the most important part of trading is being able to analyze markets like a pro.
On the surface, this logic makes sense. After all, if you can reliably forecast which direction to take on a trade, the money should take care of itself… right?
What these novices don’t yet understand is that something special happens the moment you commit your money to a trade…
You start feeling things.
Whether it’s fear, excitement, anxiety, or a mix of all three, no one is immune to these emotions. And they can wreak havoc on even the best planned trades.
You may be able to call the direction, the timing, and the target price to perfection… But it can all be for nothing if you are unable to stick to your trade plan.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders plan out a great trade… But then ended up somehow losing money, or not being in the market when the move they’d forecast played out.
So how do you beat your emotions to become a better, more consistent trader? It comes down to the three key parts of trading. Let me explain…
The Three-Legged Stool of Trading
I think of trading as a three-legged stool.
Your methodology/strategy for picking trades is the first leg. Your risk- and trade-management strategy is the second leg. And the third leg is your trading psychology.
In my experience, most traders focus on the first leg (strategy and methodology), and they neglect the other two legs. But the stool needs all three legs to stand on its own.
Over the years, I’ve honed my own proprietary method to develop well-rounded traders. Here’s what I’ve learned…
The first fundamental building block of a profitable trader is to establish a proven strategy/methodology you can use to identify good trades. In my experience, everything follows from this foundation.
How you manage your risk and your trades should be determined by the strategies you employ. Your trading psychology likewise will be influenced by your approach to risk and trade management.
I’ve seen other trading instructors assign arbitrary percentage values to the three legs of the trading stool. Usually these values are divided up like this: 30% to the level of importance on the analytical strategy, 30% to risk and trade management, and 40% to trading psychology.
But I don’t believe that any one leg is more important than the other. And yet I’ve found that, more often than not, traders neglect risk/trade management and psychology.
So how do you stop neglecting these two important areas to become a more well-rounded trader? That’s where our reverse gambler’s fallacy comes in…

Time to Ditch the Casino Mentality
There is one block that seems to stop traders from progressing to working on the other two legs.
That is, they don’t know how to flip the switch from thinking about their trades as individual trades in a vacuum… to thinking about them as a collection that relies on a statistical edge to net a profit.
Most traders run into this problem at some point in their careers. And if you’re frustrated with your trading right now, chances are you may be struggling with this, too.
It’s known as the casino mentality. And it’s the same mindset that amateur gamblers will take with them into Caesars Palace or the Bellagio.
It doesn’t matter if they’re seated at the blackjack table or standing over the roulette wheel. Most gamblers believe that the hand or spin they are about to play is the opportunity to hit a winner.
After all, if the roulette wheel has landed four black spins in a row, the next one surely must be red, right?
In reality, the chances of the roulette ball landing on black or red is even, at about 47.4% each. This means each spin is independent of the last.
This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. What’s interesting is that I’ve observed a kind of reverse gambler’s fallacy from many traders…
This occurs when a trader, who does in fact have a statistically proven strategy, goes on a losing streak… And then instead of continuing to trust their strategy, they abandon it altogether.
How to Avoid the “Reverse” Gambler’s Fallacy
I saw this logical fallacy in effect this past week during one of my coaching calls.
The trader I was coaching had recently taken a technical setup that simply did not work. He was convinced he had done something wrong and wanted my help in improving his analysis.
But his analysis was great.
He didn’t do anything wrong in identifying the setup, which was textbook in nature. But the setup looked so good that, when it resulted in a loss, the trader was convinced that he was the problem… That he did something wrong.
The lesson I imparted to him, which I now want to pass on to you, is this very simple truth…
Nobody, and I mean nobody, ever takes a trade thinking it is going to be a loser. Every single trade you take will be because you thought it would make you money.
Despite this feeling of confidence, out of 100 trades, you’d be lucky to win 50% of them.
That’s why a great trader is not defined by what percentage of their trades end up as winners or losers. A great trader is defined by whether or not they are net profitable after taking 100 trades.
If you win roughly as many trades as you lose, but your winners make you 2x or 3x the amount of money you give back on your losers, you will end up with a nice profit at the end of the year.
Remember, nobody ever takes a trade thinking it is not going to work out. This is why it is absolutely crucial to abandon the idea of thinking about your trades as individual trades.
Instead, start taking a more data-driven, statistical approach to your trading. What do I mean by that?
Keeping a longer-term perspective on your trading is the key to longevity in this business. What your numbers look like over the next 100, 200, or 300 trades is far more relevant and important than losing your cool because you lost a handful of trades in a row.
Of course, to be able to make it to 300 trades, you must have a rock-solid risk management plan in place.
I don’t see gamblers at the casino take a professional approach very often. It’s rare to see someone bet small and stick to the odds on every play. It’s far more common for gamblers to be all over the place with the size of their bets.
They may start off betting small, but after winning a couple of hands of blackjack, they get overconfident and take an outsized bet. Sure enough, on that next hand they go bust while the house just happens to hit blackjack.
This is how casinos make money from gamblers. And it’s how the market parts amateur traders from their capital.
No doubt, it takes a lot of hard work and discipline to make the transition from amateur to professional. But, I promise you, the rewards make it all worthwhile. Until next time.
Regards,
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Why you should learn poker and game theory (LONG READ)

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!

Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:

- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…

- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:

- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!

TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.
Edit: I couldn't crosspost from cc so I just copied the post as I figured it is relevant here too :)
submitted by RaBaTaJ_ to ethtrader [link] [comments]

My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading

TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.


I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.

I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)

There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.

At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?"
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?"
  3. "Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
  4. "What is your background?"
  5. "What is a normal day for you?"
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?"
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
  9. "Is enough to start trading?"
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.

ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.

2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.

ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.

If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" (Sound familiar?)

When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.

ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).

ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.

Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...

The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
  1. Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
  2. Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!

ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.

"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)

Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.

11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
  1. Risky Decision-Making
  2. Decision Avoidance
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".


ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.

Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.

Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
Things you can't take to the bank:
  1. RRR.
  2. Win-Rate
  3. Number of trades.
  4. "This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.


ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
  1. Health
  2. Wealth
  3. Happiness
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.


ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.


Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.


Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)


ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.

That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
  1. RiskReward Calculators
  2. Position size Calculators
  3. EV Calculator
  4. Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
  3. "Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
  4. "What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
  5. "What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
  9. "Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.

All the best!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

How do you want to do this? A Discussion on Selective Rule Enforcement and the application of the "Rule of Cool"

Hello folks,
For my research analysis and writing class my professor let me pick any topic I want. (her mistake) So for my final term paper I chose to come up with a method of determining a guide to the use of the "rule of cool." I got a A on the paper so I figured I'd share it with you fine folks as well. It is rather lengthy so I've included the abstract first. The 8 tips for dungeon masters is near the end (third session), the first and second parts deal more with the philosophical and ethics of games. So, if situational ethics and a discussion on the Mechanics, Dynamics, and Aesthetics of Play are of use for you, be my guess.
I am a relatively new DM so I spent a long time researching and trying to absorb what would make me a "good DM". With that cavate please keep in mind I know next to nothing compared to a vast majority of the DMs here. I can think of no place better to have this paper peer-reviewed, picked apart and "rebutalled" to death than here. If you feel offended, challenged, or angry reading this... Please understand I am a moron borrowing the works and words of far smarter people. If you feel that "this is the WAY" again... I am a moron... so ... with out further ado.

Abstract:

The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency using fanatical legalism in a game can be a source of contention between someone acting as a referee and/or “Game Master” and players of a game. Likewise, to approach games with a sense of fanatical antinomianism, or to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want, tends to offer no challenge, and or reason to play that specific game. Using ethical theory frameworks such as situational ethics, natural law, and utilitarianism this paper seeks find the philosophical principles of what moments are acceptable and actually beneficial to bend the rules of a game. As such, it is important to define games, briefly discuss why games are played, and roles rules have on games. The game Dungeons and Dragons 5th edition will be used as the principal example. With “rule for rules” established, seven tips on how to implement it this rule using advice and guidance from some of the most well known “Dungeon Masters” in the modern era will be provided.
Much of this paper relies on the works of Joseph Fletcher, Sheila Murphy; Benard Suits, Robin Hunicke, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek for the ethical and philosophical discussions around games. For the practical advice, it relies primarily on the works of Matthew Mercer, Brennan Lee Mulligan, Benjamin Scott, Patrick Tracy, Kelly Mclaughlin and Monty Martin.
Players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, seek out what is best for them. Games are about many things but principally about enjoyment. It’s okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. How it happens is up to the players, the one running the game, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?”

**“Once upon a time, around a table…”

A man behind a cardboard screen sits across from a woman wearing a funny hat. He is frantically reading through the pages of the various books at his disposal. He finds the reference he is looking for, but it is not clear. “It is technically against the rules, it is barely within the realm of possibility, but the idea is so creative…” the man murmurs to himself. Exasperated, the man smiles a crooked grin and explains, “Well you can certainly try… give me an acrobatics check.” The woman throws a piece of plastic resin on to the table. The dice reads, “18.” The man sighs and then laments, “fine… how do you want to do this?” The table erupts in cheers, as high-fives are given from the others around the table. The woman adjusts her hat, as she gleefully explains how her character will use the momentum of several falling barrels to move across the map in a single turn without having to use all her character’s movement.
As a “Dungeon Master” (DM) for the tabletop role playing game, Dungeons and Dragons (D&D), I can say without a doubt that many DMs have encountered extremely similar events as the one described above. The choice to be a stringent rule-follower without leniency can be a source of much resentment between the DM and the players around the table. Likewise, to completely ignore the rules and simply let players do whatever they want offers no challenge, no reason to play. In terms of D&D rule enforcement, as is with many events in life, the choice of always being either a “Harsh Disciplinarian” or the lenient, “Laissez Faire Guide” is a false dichotomy. Instead, seeking balance between the two choices based first on the overall needs of the players, second on the needs of the story, and third on requirements and rules of the game should be the norm.

Session 1: What is the Relationship between, Players, Games and Rules?

The 19th century philosopher and founder of modern cultural history, John Hughes once wrote, “Play is older than culture, for culture, however inadvertently defined, always presupposes human society and animals have not waited for man to teach them their playing.” 1 Why do humans play? Is it instinctual? Bernard Suits was a Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Philosophy for the University of Waterloo and his essays are in part responsible for the field of philosophy of games in the late 20th century. In his book, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Suits’ book uses Aesop’s fable about the grasshopper to argue that play is what we would do in a perfect civilization. He believed that in a world devoid of work, humans would still seek out challenges through play, suggesting that it is human nature to challenge ourselves.2 But is that the only reason someone plays a game?
One YouTuber opined that “In a practical sense, games facilitate systemic thinking by getting us to view abstractions, but also engender creativity by getting us to play.”3 If true, these are essential tools for humanity to function as an intelligent race. This makes sense from an evolutionary level as to why humanity would develop play, but is there more to it than “games encourage outside the box thinking?”
The landmark paper titled, “MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research” is one of the earliest attempts to formalize the field of video game design theory and it is fundamental to how modern game designers look at these systems. It serves to define the importance of mechanic, dynamics, and aesthetics of play and is instrumental to helping understand what players will expect out of a game. We will discuss more about dynamics and mechanics later, but first let us focus on aesthetics.
Aesthetics of Play Defined
Term Definition Examples
Sense Pleasure Enjoyment derived from how it stimulates the senses The visuals of a game, sound, and music, feel of the dice, etc.
Fantasy Enjoyment derived from the ability to step into a role that cannot be experienced in real life Playing a game as a magic wielding sorcerer or rocks in the far flung reaches of outer space
Narrative Enjoyment derived from game as drama, it is about the stories and experience gained Heavily story driven games such as Last of Us, Dungeons and Dragons, Final Fantasy
Challenge Enjoyment derived from overcoming an arbitrary obstacle Platformers like Mario, or even drinking games like beer pong, or corn hole; social games like charades, etc.
Fellowship Enjoyment from working cooperatively as a group to accomplish a goal Team based or social games such as Among Us, the card game Spades; save the world mode on Fortnite
Competition Enjoyment from showing dominance Chess or Go, Battle royal games such as Fortnite or PubG or Call of Duty; Fallguys; darts Poker; Uno, Killer bunnies or Magic the Gathering;
Discovery Enjoyment from uncovering the new or discovering news ways to play a game. These can range from searching to find things to choose your own adventure Minecraft; Zelda Breath of the Wild; simple matching games; the board game Betrayal at the House on the Hill; or games like Fable; Dragon Age Inquisition; or Mass effect
Expression Enjoyment from showing an aspect of one’s self; or games that allow full customization of characters Creation games like Minecraft; role play games like fallout 4; world of warcraft or Fortnite
Submission (aka Abnegation) Enjoyment from being able to “turn of the brain; and tune out the world” or what is also known as zone out factor. Bejeweled; candy crush; the lever-pull games at casinos, solitaire, etc.
(Source: Portnow & Floyd, October 2012)5
Aesthetics are things like sense pleasure, fantasy, the narrative of the story, challenge, fellowship, discovery, expression, and something called submission.4 There is an additional aesthetic that most game designers also consider when designing games termed as “competition”.5 These are all reasons people play games and it is important to keep all these in mind when acting as a DM.
The table above works to define these terms more appropriately and makes it easier to reference later. The reasons a player may want to play a game vary and change over time. If a DM can understand their players’ goals (i.e., what the player hopes to get out of the game) the DM will be able to understand why someone might want to perform a certain action, play a game, or want to ignore a certain rule in the first place.
On that note, what are rules in games? Think about it… Games are weird… well I should say the act of playing a game… is weird. Suits once wrote in his article, for the “Philosophy of Science Association Journal,” "To play a game is to engage in activity directed towards bringing about a specific state of affairs, using only means permitted by rules, where the rules prohibit more efficient [means] in favor of less efficient means, and where such rules are accepted just because they make possible such activity."6 In other words, to play a game we create rules that prevent us from achieving a goal through the easiest means available. Instead, we make something more difficult and we play a game. For instance, in basketball, it would be far easier to simply carry the ball all the way to the basket instead of dribbling it.
In D&D, there is a similar activity to dribbling. It is called a “dice roll.” It is something that players must make to see if they succeed or fail at a task. The player rolls a 20-sided die and tries to get above a certain score to succeed. Players can roll normal, with advantage, or with disadvantage. Rolling with advantage allows the player to roll the D-20 (the 20-sided die) twice and use the higher number. Rolling with disadvantage also has the player roll the D-20 twice, but they must take the lower number rolled instead. It introduces a chance of randomness, and players will find any excuse they can to avoid having to make a roll with "disadvantage." In his book, The Grasshopper, Suits argues that we do this because it is the act of overcoming that limitation that we find enjoyment. By taking on these restrictions and accepting these limitations, we take on what he coins as a "lusory attitude" which allows us to play the game as it is meant to be played.
Suits would argue that by not playing the game according to the rules as written, the player would have only achieved a “quasi-victory” not really worthy of achievement. He also goes on to say that even the act of “failing to win the game by virtue of losing it implies an achievement, in the sense that the activity in question -- playing the game -- has been successfully, even though not victoriously, complete.”7 So, according to Suits, it’s better to follow the rules of the game and loose than to not follow the rules and win. It’s important to point out that the aesthetics of play had not yet been defined and Suits’ work mainly focused on the “challenge” aspect of play. This is where many sports and game philosophers begin to find fault with Suits. In the “Journal of Philosophy of Sport,” a rebuttal of Suits’ work by David Myers asks, “What if the goal of the player isn't to follow the rules or even play the game?”8 For instance, what happens if the player is motivated by competition and doesn’t care about rules so long as “they win?” While an extreme example, this paradox isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Therefore, focusing on just the challenge aesthetic of game play and simply playing the game “rules as written” can lead to a disconnect between what the player desires and the game itself.
Jesper Juul, an Associate Professor in the School of Design at the Royal Danish Academy of Fine Arts, wrote in his textbook on video game design, “Rules specify limitations and affordances. They prohibit players from performing actions such as making jewelry out of dice, but they also add meaning to the allowed actions, and this affords players meaningful actions that were not otherwise available; rules give games structure”9 Basically, without rules we cannot even have play. However, if the player ignores the rules that player won’t be able to enjoy the full experience of the game, because the rules both afford the opportunity to enjoy the game and provide the obstacles in the first place.
How the rules affect actual game play is where Mechanics and Dynamics come into play. (See, I told you we would get back to it eventually.) Mechanics are the rules and systems that govern chance to create the game we experience. Dynamics are how those rules come together to govern the strategies of that game. In D&D, an example of mechanics is how a player would have to roll a 20-sided dice to see if an action would succeed. Dynamics are the actions the player takes to manipulate the situation and give themselves advantage in the roll. Some examples of this are using a spell caster’s familiar, flanking an enemy in combat, using the bend luck trait, or lucky feat. This is akin to how the rules of poker dictate that bluffing is allowed (mechanics); but how the bluffing player conceals their tells and bets is entirely up to that player (dynamics).
What happens when the player’s desired aesthetics and the mechanics don’t allow for the dynamics the player wants to use? This is where it falls on the DM to determine if the game can handle a little rule bending. In the Dungeon Master Guide’s introduction, it states “The D&D rules help you and the other players have a good time, but the rules aren’t in charge. You’re the DM, and you are in charge of the game…” However! It goes on to say, “The success of a D&D game hinges on your ability to entertain the other players at the game table.” What is a good way to approach this? Is it THE DM IS ALWAYS RIGHT, able to enforce their will on the players whenever it suits their need? Should the DM strictly enforce the rules and narrative of their planned story without the need to appease the players’ wants and desires?... well… The DM COULD do it, but it won’t be long before their players stop showing to game sessions. Just like the rules, without players, there is no game. Or as one notable professional DM and YouTuber once put it:
“The game you weave belongs to the players as much as yourself… so make sure to humor them every once in awhile by giving them a chance to be extraordinary" - Patrick "the Goddam DM" Tracy 10

Session 2: The Ethics of a Dungeon Master

So how does someone seek a balance between the rules and the players? Enter situational ethics. Situational ethics, first proposed by philosopher and first professor of ethics at Harvard Medical School, Joseph Fletcher,** is an attempt to seek a middle ground between two ethical schools of thought: Legalism and Antinomianism. In legalism, morality must come from a strict set of rules that must be obeyed at all times and cannot be deviated from or broken for any reason. Antinomianism, on the other hand, is the idea that there should be no rules, you should be able to do what you want, whenever you want (lawless society). 11
In D&D terms, "Fanatical Legalism" would be similar to what many DMs would characterize as "Lawful Stupid," where a certain player's character enforces harsh judgement without ever showing mercy to those who would break the law regardless of the circumstances… even to the detriment of the party… or that small band of orphans who were stealing food out of desperation…
Likewise, in D&D terms, "Fanatical Antinomianism" would be similar to what DMs would characterize as "Chaotic Stupid," where a player's character completely ignores consequences an action would bring and simply act according to their whims… even when it's an obvious trap… that has a 100 percent chance to damage not only your character, but the other players as well.
Fletcher's work states that the morally right thing to do depends on the situation and can change throughout the situation, but at the same time, there is a universal “moral law” on which to base our actions that he called "Agape" love. Derived from the Greek word of similar pronunciation, Fletcher sought to define Agape as a means to show love for your fellow human. In his book titled “Situational Ethics,” Fletcher states, "All laws, rules, principles, ideals and norms, are only contingent, only valid if they happen to serve love."12 Or to put it a different way, a desire to see your fellow human be happy is and should be the goal. It is not really a feeling, but an attitude to do what is best for others.
In terms of the D&D alignment chart, this would be easiest to define as whether someone is "Good" or "Evil." Whereas a “good character” is someone who acts for the betterment of others regardless of personal motivations, conversely an “evil character” acts out of their own self-interests regardless of how this action would affect others. Those that follow the concept of Agape would be “good characters.” Those that do not, would be evil.
This is where the so-called “Rule of Cool” comes into play. Mathew Mercer, an extremely acclaimed DM, comedian, and writer of D&D’s “Explorer’s Guide to Wild Mount,” and host of the show “Critical Roll,” defines the Rule of Cool as a trope in the D&D community that is “the willing suspension of disbelief for the sake of a cool moment.”13 It’s used in moments where the use of an certain object or action would be nearly impossible according to the mechanics of the game, but because it is a “cool dynamic,” the DM allows it. But what is “cool?” Is it a player that is normally too nervous to speak up being able to do something unique on time despite it being against the rules? Is it a player that has spent considerable time perfecting a skill and being able to perform a truly “epic task” (such as the jumping across barrels to effectively triple their movement distance)? Is it succeeding in persuading the main villain to befriend the party through a series of increasingly complex but successful rolls?
In all these situations listed above, there is a common theme that ties all the principles of what this paper is trying to address together in a simple phrase. As a DM, before making a ruling ask, "How will this decision affect the final enjoyment of all at the table?" Now a DM cannot give the players everything they want. Doing so cheapens the truly extraordinary moments. Finding the right balance can be difficult. That is why the flow chart above is suggested when trying to figure out whether it is a good time to “Remember the Rule of Cool.”
https://i.redd.it/f362ghdjlqf61.png

Session 3: “Well… You can Certainly Try”- Some Famous DM

Finally, we can discuss how the desire to make the most enjoyable experience for everyone at the table plays out using real-world examples and advice from some of the most well-known DMs in the business. Using the concept of Situational Ethics’ Agape, we can see how to work in the rule of cool using eight tips for Dungeon Masters.
Tip 1: It is advised to know your audience.
Not everything is as it seems, so be sure to pay attention to your players and look at them when you are describing the situation. Make note of how they react when tones or themes change. Remember those reasons people play games mentioned earlier? This is where those come into play. Additionally, while not something outright suggested, it is nevertheless important to take team dynamics into account.
The book “Four lenses unfolded” describes how various personality types can interact and work to solve problems. In it, the book describes four primary temperaments: Green (analytical), Blue (empathetic), Orange (adventurous), and Gold (goal oriented). Unlike most other personality tests, four lenses theory suggests that while we have a dominant personality at any given moment, other aspects of these personalities can manifest as well. Being able to draw on these aspects at will is the mark of a “mature” individual.14 As a DM/referee, coach, or manager, being able to do this and adapt to the needs of the players will take player engagement to the next level.
Tip 2: Establishing and Managing Expectations Early and Often, Works to Prevent Disappointment and Confusions
Mercer once put it this way, “Establish early on in your campaign how much of a level of crazy you're willing to allow. This allows for players to better understand what to try for and what not to try for.”15 Whether you are a teacher, referee, coach, parent, supervisor, or mentor, establishing expectations with those involved mitigates problems before they arise.
One of the main tools DM’s have for this is that is recommended by Mercer, as well as nearly every DM in existence on the internet, is the “Session Zero.” Session Zero is a term used to describe a session where no play occurs but instead rules that will be used and rules that will be ignored or bent is established. It also serves to establish a theme the players can expect from any campaign. Using the first chapter of the DMs guide will help considerably in establishing this. Additionally, one of the best guides for this is laid out by the DM YouTubers known as “the Dungeon Dudes” in their video titled, “How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e.”16 But always keep Agape in mind throughout this process. In this step, it means actively listening to the players. The DM may want a gritty, tough, realistic, and challenging campaign. But if the players want a high fantasy power trip, some adjustments are going to need to be made to the campaign. Listening to players and changing the plans accordingly is not easy. It requires A LOT of humility and ego suppression. Especially when the DM has already designed how the game is going to go… which leads us to the next tip.
Tip 3: It is important to develop a healthy relationship with failure.
Celebrated author Orson Wells once wrote; “If you want a happy ending, that of course, is dependent of where you stop your story.”17 This applies to both the players and DM. There will be times when the DM is tempted to ignore the rules because the consequences seem dire. The player fails an athletics check trying to use a dynamic that had a high-risk, high-reward moment. Now the player’s character is doomed to fall several hundred feet down a ravine to what is likely certain doom in lava. But this isn’t the end. That player’s character is most likely dead, but their death could result in a moment of drama and tension for the players. It’s the very real chance of failure that encourages players to think critically about a situation and experience excitement and tension. Brennon Lee Mulligan, the DM of the D&D streaming show, “Dimension 20,” put it this way… “if you are not allowing for failure, you are essentially just telling a story,” and thus never actually playing a game (make-believe as Suits would put it). 18
Another thing to consider is that through failure, we can often find comedy as well as ways to encourage players to think critically and find new escapes, 19 at least according to the mind behind the “Replaying the Curse of Strahd” videos, Benjamin (Puffin Forest) Scott. Lastly, Mercer strongly advises that if a DM allows too many “rule of cool moments” to happen in succession, the weight of the moments and consistency of the game will be lost. 20
Players that are afraid to fail will not try. Mercer explains that “Most role play games are designed to forge a heroic story (showing feats of legend) so let the players try! Let them fail, and occasionally succeed!” This is where his catch phrase “you can certainly try” comes from. 21
Tip 4: Whenever Possible, Avoid Taking Things Personally
In his lecture on not talking things personally, soccer referee and public speaker, Frederik Imbo, explained there are two sides of a coin to keep in mind when trying not to take things personally: “It is not about you,” and “it is about you.” 22 Look at the other person’s intentions not just yours. With that in mind, it is okay to give yourself empathy and speak up. When someone seems upset with you, ask what are they hoping to get out of this releasing of emotions? Additionally, ensure that your pride isn’t preventing you from making the correct call. Yes I am talking about Ego again; it is that important! It is the DM’s world, but it is the players’ game. Without both, the world and the game, you do not have D&D.
D&D has a weird paradox of being both a story and a game. It has both a narrative as its core premise, but it is, in fact, also a multi-player game. Without at least two people you cannot really have much fun. DMs should make sure that everyone at the table enjoys themselves.
Tip 5: Mechanics are important precisely because they are a means of delivering impactful story moments.
Remember that rule of cool concept? Extraordinary moments don’t happen often, and this is by design of the mechanics of the game. Humans remember the novel and unique way more often than the mundane. Mundane things tend to blend into the background. It’s the unexpected moments that highlight the more impactful story moments, especially if that moment is tied to strong emotions.23
With that in mind, Mulligan suggests looking at where the players are putting their resources before deciding how to rule on a situation. Have they invested experience points/levels into a specific skill that is relevant to this situation instead of just something they can use in combat? If so, reward them for wanting to do something that is a part of the world you are creating together. 24
Tip 6: Discourage metagaming but allow it whenever possible.
Look for any and every excuse you can to give advantage on an arcana check by setting the DC low (10 or higher). If the player succeeds, they can use what they know… they are going to anyway, but at least then they can talk about it with the other players.
According to the DM guide Chapter 8, metagame thinking means “thinking about the game as a game,” Examples would be thinking “the DM wouldn’t throw such a powerful monster at us so early in the game, so we will surely be saved and not have to take this fight seriously,” or “the DM spent A LOT of time describing that door… maybe we should search it again!” 25
The problem with metagaming isn’t really about what advantage the players are getting in the game. The problem is that manipulation of the dynamics, when used to extremes, can spoil the plot line of the cumulative story being told. This can lessen the drama and tension elements resulting in decreased enjoyment of those involved. Additionally, it can create a dynamic where the DM is constantly having to escalate encounters to challenge the player, encouraging a potentially toxic “DM vs player” mentality.
For instance, how would a street orphan barbarian with no formal education and a wisdom of …let’s say very low…be able to know that liches phylactery is the source of their power. The solution here depends on why the players are playing this specific game. Is it the narrative of the story? Is it discovery? If these aren’t anywhere close to the reasons these players came to the game table in the first place, the narrative is not going to take as much of a factor into decisions. Metagaming in this instance isn’t going to be much of a problem.
Tip 7: Keep in mind, the ending is “A” destination, but the story is about how you get there.
A DM may hold off the extra cool moments for the final parts of the game, keeping their players in complete darkness and grit the entire way. However, without at least some levity along the way, some “water for the weary travelers,” as Mercer put it, they may not make it to the end.26 So, do not be afraid to relax the rules from time to time to give them those cool moments, but do so sparingly lest the destination lose its luster as well. Always keep in mind it’s about the enjoyment of crafting and playing in the world together that makes this, or really any game, fun.
Tip 8: When all else fails… take a break and have the Tarrasque attack the party.
When all else fails, roll two D-20s out of players’ views… fake a worried expression… role a D-100 (also out of player’s view) look over the score concerned as you pour through your notes… then explain sorrowfully… “I’m sorry… The Tarrasque has risen and has attacked the party. Everyone roll initiative.” This is actual advice from the DM manual. It is right under “faking illness and running away.”27 The point is this: never be afraid to pause or call a game when it’s over or needed.
Maybe something incredibly uncomfortable for a player has happened. Maybe the DM has reached the end of what they were able to prepare for that session. Perhaps everyone is hungry or needs a bathroom break. Maybe the entire table has gotten to a point where no one can agree on anything and team dynamics are breaking down. That game world will always be there… but your friends won’t. Cherish that moment and make as many good moments as possible. Additionally, taking breaks both in-game and in the real world allow for quiet moments. These allow for the greater moments to shine through and the players will enjoy their experience more.
https://i.redd.it/1ncu361zlqf61.png
The graphic above serves to summarize the eight tips above and show their relationship with the narrative, enjoyment, and the rules when put in the context of situational ethics. From this graph, the relationship between the eight tips and how they play into the narrative, enjoyment, and rules of the game can be seen. Each of the tips can influence many parts of the game but they are intended to primarily influence the aspect of the game they are adjacent to. “Knowing the players” should influence the narrative and what kind of enjoyment the players receive. What mechanics are used to enable the game is causally related to how the rules are used and so on. Please note that Agape is at the center as, with every decision a DM makes, considering what is best for the players should be central to the experience of any game.
The Epic Conclusion
Through crafting a game-world together with your players, a DM has the potential to tap into one of the greatest traditions humanity has: camaraderie with friends. At the end of the day, these players are your friends, or at the very least your fellow human beings. As such, you should want what is best for them. Through trials, hardships, and drama, we get to put the punctuation on the moments of excitement, joy, happiness, and bliss. It is okay if the player does not get exactly what they want, so long as they still had enjoyment. This is because getting everything we expect is sometimes boring. However, always keep in mind that at the end of the day, games are about having fun. How that happens is up to the players, the DM, and whether the rules were used to enhance the experience or not. It’s possible to find that balance by asking these questions in order: “How will this decision affect: the final enjoyment of all at the table? the narrative? the rules in the future?”
1 Huizinga, Johan . "Homo Ludens". Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd. (1980), pp. 1., accessed January 19, 2021. http://art.yale.edu/file_columns/0000/1474/ homoludens_johan_huizinga_routledge_1949.pdf
2 Suits, Bernard, “The Grasshopper: Games, Life and Utopia,” Broadview Press. Ed. 3. (November 29, 2005): 54–55. Accessed December 31, 2020. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/803547.The_Grasshopper
3 The Game Overanalyzer, The Aesthetics of Play | Why We Play Games, and the Search for Truth and Beauty in Game Design. The Game Overanalyzer. (January 11, 2020), accessed 6 January 2021. Video 18:44. https://youtu.be/lONsZwjVDzg
4 Hunicke, Robin, Marc LeBlanc, and Robert Zubek. "MDA: A formal approach to game design and game research." Proceedings of the AAAI Workshop on Challenges in Game AI, vol. 4, no. 1, p. 1722. (2004). Accessed January 11, 2020 https://www.aaai.org/Papers/Workshops/2004/WS-04-04/WS04-04-001.pdf
5 Portnow, James; Floyd, Daniel; Aesthetics of Play- Redefining Genres in Gaming. Extra Credits; (October 17, 2012), Video 9:13. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uepAJ-rqJKA&list=PL3N9QD4_yI-BlnwWUL8hhjpKgqRul3xAa&index=11
6 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox.” Chicago University Press. Philosophy of Science Association Journal, Vol 36, no. 3 (September 1, 1969). pg 316–.321. Accessed December 30, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/186226
7 Suits, Bernard. “Discussion: Games and Paradox (1969)
8 Myers, David. “Game as Paradox: A Rebuttal of Suits.” Journal of the philosophy of Sport 39, no. 1 (May 1, 2012). Accessed December 30, 2020. https://search-ebscohost-com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=ip&db=s3h&AN=87342252&site=ehost-live&scope=site.
9 Juul, Jesper. "Half-Real: Video Games between Real Rules and Fictional Worlds", MIT Press, (Aug 19, 2011) pp.57-59
10 Tracy, Patrick. DM Tips: The Rule of Cool. Fantasy Bango. (October 20, 2017). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 2:23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8aAIFalx6s
11 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. Westminster John Knox Press, (1997). Page 17-26 (accessed January 20, 2021) http://bit.ly/Googlescholar_SItuational_Ethics
**Please note that just because Fletcher’s Situational Ethics is used prominently, this is not an endorsement of all his views. Fletcher’s work has been used to justify terrible atrocities, such as eugenics, this should serve to point out that any philosophy taken to extremes can lead to terrible outcomes
12 Fletcher, Joseph F. Situation Ethics: The New Morality. (1997)
13 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). Geek & Sundry. (February 16, 2016). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video. 5:52 https://youtu.be/fWZDuFIYkf0
14 Bryce, Nathan K., “Four Lenses Unfolded: A Deeper Understanding of Temperament Values,” Insight; (January 29, 2002,).
15 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016).
16 McLaughlin, Kelly; Martin, Monty. "How to Run a Session Zero for Dungeons and Dragons 5e". Dungeon Dudes. (September 3, 2020), Accessed 12 30, 2020. Video. https://youtu.be/2MA-z5Ai-bQ
17 Wells, Orson, "The Big Brass Ring." Santa Teresa Press (1987, January 1) 1-148
18 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) | Adventuring Academy Season 2 | Ep. 16 |” Adventuring Academy. Dimension (2020, December 28). Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 1:24:18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IbVxEKpipo
19 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020)
20 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016)..
21 Mercer, Matthew. The Rule of Cool! (Game Master Tips). (2016)
22 Imbo, Frederik, "How not to take things personally? | Frederik Imbo | TEDxMechelen" TEDx Talks; (March 4, 2020) accessed 10 Jan 2021, video 17:36 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnJwH_PZXnM&t=381s
23 Kensinger, Elizabeth. Remembering the Details: Effects of Emotion. US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health. (May 4, 2009) Accessed 2021, January 30 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2676782/
24 Mulligan, Brennan; Scott, Benjamin. “Animating Your Table (with Benjamin Scott) (2020)
25 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014) accessed 29 January 2021 https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg/running-the-game#MetagameThinking
26 Mulligan, Brennan; Mercer, Matthew. Building Your Own Campaign Setting (with Matthew Mercer) | Adventuring Academy. Dimension 20. (2019, April 3) Accessed December 30, 2020. Video 57:01 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sig8X_kojco&t=2867s
27 Mearls, Mike, and Jeremy Crawford. "Dungeons Master's guide". Renton, WA: Wizards of the Coast. (2014)-accessed 20 January 2021. https://www.dndbeyond.com/sources/dmg
submitted by The_seph_i_am to DMAcademy [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

My trophy rankings of GTAV on the PS4

Hi there, so I platinumed GTAV a while ago and I ranked them based on difficulty, how long they took, and just generally how fun they were to achieve. This also is kind of a walkthrough of some sorts and includes tips for some of the more difficult ones. Oh and keep in mind that this is just my opinion, some trophies can be achieved easier by other people.
And there is some swearing in this, but that shouldn't be a concern considering this is talking about GTAV Pick option C at the end of the game so you don't miss any achievements
  1. Pimp my sidearm- works on any gun, recommend beating the game and then fully mod a pistol for the cheapest results.
  2. Los santos customs- beat the game and take franklins car (trust me, do franklin's car) and go to a Los Santos customs and buy every option
  3. A lot of cheddar- When you finish the game go to one of the stock websites and purchase every stock you can, which means you should be able to purchase 40 million worth of stocks at a time, do this until you unlock the achievement. This should take around 2 minutes.
  4. Out of your depth- Purchase a boat or call a taxi (if you do the taxi achievement before this one the taxi skips are free) and go to the ocean, drive or swim to the very end and swim down to find a shark, annoy the shark so he will kill you. Depending on how you do it should only take around 5-15 minutes.
  5. Off the plane- nothing needed to be said here, just complete it.
  6. Clean sweep- Just stay behind cover and purchase snacks and body armor, and use a gun like a pump shotgun or a one-shot weapon, such as the revolver.
  7. Trading pure alpha- you can do this anytime within the game, just purchase a stock and then kill yourself repeatedly until next to your stocks a green arrow pointing up appears, sell it and you should get the achievement. Can take up to 5 minutes if stock prices don't go up quickly.
  8. Three-man army- Play as franklin and call Micheal and Trevor and pick them up, get a wanted level and stay in your car, kill a cop so you can get 3 stars, and start driving away but still have the cops on your ass. Do this for 3 minutes and you should get the achievement easily. Make sure your car has some armor upgrades though.
  9. Alls fare in love and war- After beating the mission Mr.Philips you are able to purchase businesses when you're able to play as franklin purchase the taxi business for 200k and then you should get a call after a while, do the job and you should get the achievement. The missions themselves don't take a long time, maybe around 5-10 minutes, if you don't get the achievement to try to do another one.
  10. Red mist- After completing the Trevor Philips industries mission this will just look like standard strangers and freaks, complete it, and then the others should pop up after you finish the one before. Complete all 5 and you should get the achievement. Can take up to 30 minutes to an hour if you're not good at it, I recommend trying to get the gold for all these for another achievement.
  11. Altruist acolyte- There are certain markers that will appear as you get close to them, play as Trevor and go to the "Domestic" random event, there are a few closer to the location such as the hitch lifts but I wasn't able to spawn them. Drive to the cult and you should get the achievement after the cutscene. Took me around 10 minutes if you use the domestic random event.
  12. Wanted: Dead or alive: This will also appear as Trevor strangers and freaks, after doing it you will get an email giving a picture of where he should be hidden, you can search it up on youtube as I did and capture him, don't kill the target no matter what, deliver him to Maude and you should unlock the achievement. Took around 10 minutes.
  13. Kifflom! Play as Micheal and go to the Epsilon Program website, and pay the 1000 dollars to start this, I recommend using another guide for this but whenever you need to do something like wear the robe for 5 days just go to Michael's house and sleep until you are able to go on another mission, and when you need to walk around the desert for 5 miles just walk in a circle. this can take up to 3 hours if not done correctly.
  14. San Andreas sightseer- Purchase a helicopter for the quickest results but can be done using a car or a boat. Travel around and get 95% of the map uncovered, you can tell if it's uncovered by it being transparent, meaning you can see through the map. The reason why I recommend a helicopter is you also need to uncover the ocean as well, which can be done with a boat but the helicopter is faster, you can either steal one or purchase a helicopter hangar and a helicopter. Took around 5 minutes because I already had a lot of the map uncovered.
  15. Multi-disciplined- You'll need to get a single gold in only one of the shooting range challenges, triathlon, a flight school lesson, a sea race, a street race (which only franklin can do), and an off-road race. Complete all of them anyway for 100% achievement. This can take up to 30 minutes to an hour if you aren't able to gold one.
  16. TP Industries arm race- After beating the mission Mr.Philips you need to purchase the hangar after beating the mission, it should cost 100,000 dollars. You get a special marker for the dune buggy and the airplane, there are 10 in total, 5 for the dune buggy (which is mainly just collecting supplies) and another 5 for the airplane (which is also mainly just supply drops) After doing the two quick save your game and reload it for the two missions to spawn. Can take up to an hour if doing the quick save method.
  17. Crew cut- To easily finish this you either need to make a crew for a friend to join or join a friends crew
and play a contact mission with them to get the achievement.
  1. A new perspective- Just leave one of the characters in the first person and just wait for the 15 hours or play some of
the story in the first person, I just recommend leaving it on overnight.
  1. Calling digits- reach rank 20 and have 5000 dollars, call up Merryweather and ask for a backup helicopter.
20- stick up kid- rob every store on the map, can take up to an hour depending on how fast you move to each store.
21- enjoy your stay- for this achievement you need to play golf, play tennis, play darts, arm-wrestle,
win a shooting range challenge, rob a store, buy a lap dance, buy any clothes, buy a tattoo and change your hairstyle. Make sure you win or lose the sports activities because if your teammate leaves in the middle of the match it won't count.
  1. Three-bit gangster- Pretty simple since ranking up is easy, just play 3x or 2x events or contact missions for the best RP. Can take up to an hour or two.
  2. American dream- You're most likely going to need at least 1,000,000 dollars for everything, grind the 3x or 2x event or play heists for money.
  3. 4-bit gangster- Same as a Three-bit gangster but more grinding is required. Can take up to 5 hours of pure grind.
  4. Full refund- After rank 50 have a friend call Lamar so he can call a thief on you, kill the thief and take back your money. Takes around 5 minutes.
  5. The midnight club- You can have a friend let you win 5 races by going to the menu-jobs-races and then
invite your friend and have you win 5 with a custom vehicle, depending on the map you play on
(I recommend taxiing, takes around 2 minutes to complete it) this can take up to 10-30 minutes.
  1. Backseat driver- Do this with a friend, wait for people to join or join a rally race, and then guide them through the map. Once again I recommend making the rally race so you can play on a map you are familiar with.
  2. Run like the wind- I did this in a solo match, I stole a car, got a bounty, and survived a GTA day (which is around 48 minutes) Move around and don't get kicked, you can die by anything but another player. You can do this with a friend where they have Lester give you a bounty.
  3. Show off- Use an upgraded vehicle (preferably franklin's personal car) and search up a guide for all locations, ill put a link to the guide I used in the description, while most are easy 10 of them are a complete bitch, and took me around 15 minutes just to do one of them because of the requirements. This can take up to 3-5 hours.
  4. From beyond the stars/a mystery solved- I can't really decide on which one is harder so I will group them up into one, both took me around 3 hours to do since there are so many. You can use the rockstar social club website or use a guide on YouTube as I did.
  5. Waste management- After the second heist Micheal or Trevor and purchase the old dock for around 250,000 dollars, while it can be confusing just follow the dot on the map. Took me around 2 hours to do.
  6. Close shave- Look up a guide, it's pretty much required for this. Buy the buzzard helicopter for the under the bridge and keep in mind not to do too much damage to your helicopter or it won't count, while most recommend stealing a jet from fort zancuddo I instead bought the mallard for 250,000. Took me around 3-4 hours.
  7. Decorated- In GTA online there are certain rewards for doing certain things such as killing people with a pistol a certain amount of times, every single platinum that I earned were headshot kills, sniper kills (not sure how to be honest) Kill people using melee weapons, kill people using sticky grenades, kill players in GTA online, kill psycho's (I recommend doing most of these in deathmatches) win 10 waves of survival, (it's painful and achievement on its own), rob 20 stores which is also an achievement, pay for 25 lap dances (all you need to do is pay for the dance and then exit it) buy 25 haircuts, have a friend drive you around for a few hours (sit in a car with your friend in it, pretty simple one) Flippin hell (go to a stunt race with a flying car, get high in the air and do the flips) steal vehicles (pretty simple) Achieve the fastest lap in a race (can be done with a friend) land jumps 300 feet in a road vehicles win every deathmatch and race mode (can be done with a friend) participate in 25 races, buy 25 pieces of clothes (just buy 25 shirts) get the most kills in a 4 player survival (not too hard unless you camp all game, can be done with a friend) get the most kills in a gang attack (also can be done with a friend) shoot cop choppers down (when you get 3 stars start shooting the choppers down with a homing missile) win every race mode at least once (needed for 2 achievements) get a tattoo on every body part, win a race in a custom vehicle (needed for achievement anyways) wheelie for over 2000 feet (I don't remember getting this one, but the best way is to do it at the airport) Activate a 2 person key switch (I did this on the diamond casino heist) Complete the fleeca heist finale, do the aggressive approach on the diamond casino heist and earn 1,000,000 dollars and use the elevator on the diamond casino heist.
  8. Solid gold, baby!- Do the heist setups and the strangers and freaks, every mission and strangers and freaks I got a gold in (not including prologue) was
Franklin and Lamar, Complications, Fatheson, marriage counseling, friend request, chop, the long stretch, daddy's little girl, the good husband, carbon rifles, Mr.Philips, Trevor Philips industries, Deadman walking, did somebody say yoga, by the book, Tow truck, boiler suits, masks, The multitarget assassination, Mr.Richards, Hang ten, Fresh meat, The ballad of Rocco, reuniting the family, Architects plans, doting dad, fire truck, meltdown, stingers, every gauntlet, something sensible, the times come, every Pulling favors, every rampage, shift work, Grassroots Micheal, grassroots the drag, Paparazzo, paparazzo the sex tape, Paparazzo the highness, every vinewood souvenirs expect Al Di Napoli, Exercising demons-franklin, liquidy risk, minute man blues, exercising demons Micheal and Trevor, targeted risk, uncalculated risk, a starlet in vinewood, chasing the truth, the last one, delivering the truth.
I may have missed a few but those were the ones I counted, this can take up to 5-10 hours unless if you already have quite a few on gold. You don't have to do every single challenge at once, so you can try to beat the level as fast a possible, reload it and try to get as many headshots as required for example.
  1. Career criminal- This one requires pure fucking grind, let me tell you everything I did for the 100% completion. for hobbies and pastimes, I did Stunt plane time trials, 3 medals in every shooting range challenge, won every race (meaning offroad, street, and sea,) won every sport, got par or under in golf (getting par or under is required,) Bail bonds quarry and farm, every flight school mission, every arms traffic race (required for an achievement anyways,) got a private strip club dance, hunting, yoga and parachuting. Only franklin's strangers and freaks are required, my random events were the ATM robbery, Bike theft 1, construction accident, gang imitation, mugging 1, 2, and 3, security van 3, 4, and 6, sportbike theft, a countryside gang fight, a deal went wrong, and the drunk driver. To find out the spawn points of the random events go to the rockstar social club. All 30 misc were buying a haircut, weapon, any clothing, a car mod, a tattoo, and 5 properties, a vehicle from a website, ride the cable car, use the car wash, go on the rollercoaster, friend activities (meaning call up Micheal, Trevor, or franklin as any of the 3 characters) Visit the cinema, bar, play tennis, darts, golf, go to a strip club, 25 stunt jumps, 8 knife flights, rob a store, purchase stocks, watch T.V. (do at Micheals) complete a booty call (Play as Trevor in a strip club and get one of the girls like the bar to the max and drive them to their apartment) 25 under the bridge, walk and play fetch with chop, get 30 submarine pieces (one of Micheal's strangers and freaks) 30 nuclear waste (it's an achievement anyway) get all 50 spaceship parts and letter scraps (both achievements.) This can take up to 10-20 hours, it's a fucking pain.
  2. Unnatural selection- Holy shit, this took me so fucking long to do, me and 2 other friends grinded for 10 hours straight and couldn't even beat it. Buy max snacks and body armor and the best map to do is the nuclear silo,
there is a certain hiding spot near the stairs and the stairwell that if you hide behind it's super difficult to get shot unless you peak for too long. Use the combat MG, does a lot of damage and can shred through enemy health, be careful at the beginning when getting health and armor not to be out for too long for else you will lose all your health and maybe even die. This took me prolly around 10-30 hours to complete.
  1. Above the law- This requires so much god damn grinding that I grinded for 3 days straight, I started grinding hard on level 67 and got to level 100 by doing the 3x event "Target assault race" But by the 3rd day, it was this stupid deathmatch where if you die you can come back to life by an enemy dying or some shit, heists are also good ways of gaining RP, and heist setups too. this took me around 10-20 hours to complete starting from rank 67.
  2. Numero Uno, the requirements for this achievement is to win a single Bike, Land, Sea, Air, Rally, and GTA-Race, win a Deathmatch, Team-DM, Gang-Attack, and Survival (10 rounds), and win Arm Wrestling, Darts, Parachuting, Golf, Tennis and Shooting Range. So not only do you need to complete the survival bullshit but more on top of it, now everything but a rally race, team deathmatch, and survival you can boost with a friend. But even then this still took me around 10-40 hours to complete due to the fucking survival bullshit.
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